In early April 2020, during one of the most intense times in this country’s history and a period of unprecedented loss of autonomy and freedom, the Austin real estate market went absolutely insane. Just a month earlier, the start of COVID lockdowns had produced widespread panic in the real estate service industry leading to cost-cutting and layoffs. But suddenly, listed properties were getting 10, 20, or even more offers well over the asking price. Agents didn’t understand what was happening or how to react. Prices jumped like a barefoot kid running across the Barton Springs parking lot on a hot summer afternoon.

The surge came as employees who were locked down at home realized remote work allowed them to live just about anywhere in the country. People fled overtaxed, under-policed, and overregulated states in record numbers, seeking a less expensive and freer lifestyle. It was the 2020 version of the California Gold Rush of 1849 — in reverse — with California seeing one of the largest resident exoduses in its history. The huge influx of buyers in Austin led to bidding wars and skyrocketing prices on nearly every home for sale.

Some brokerages even asked buyers to sign notices acknowledging that traditional market conditions didn’t exist — and that the value of the home they were purchasing might drop in the future.

After two years of massive, almost daily price increases, the market started to cool — and it cooled fast. By the spring of 2022, the bloom was withering on the vine. As some states dropped their heavy-handed restrictions and people returned to “normal life,” the idea of uprooting the family and moving across the country suddenly felt like too much. Home sales slowed, and prices began to recede as fewer buyers were willing to start fresh in a new state.

Austin home prices are now approaching levels only slightly higher than before the pandemic. Some who bought during the frenzy of ever-rising prices are now underwater on their mortgages. Since 2022, local home prices have continued to decline at an 8–10% annual rate.

So — are we near the bottom? Mortgage interest rates have hit an 11-month low, the economy is booming, the stock market is setting records, and second-quarter 2025 GDP has outpaced even the most optimistic forecasts. Ask the Magic 8 Ball (Google it) if now is a good time to buy, and you might get: “Outlook good.” Timing the market is almost impossible, but spotting the signs of positive change is often the best indicator that it’s time to get off the fence — and into a home.

Steve Mallett serves as President of Dripping Springs Elite and is a Broker Associate GRI Mallett Integrity Team - Keller Williams. Learn more about him here.